Sixty-Six Wards Live 2018 Primary Election Tracker

Welcome to the Sixty-Six Wards turnout tracker! Voters across Philadelphia are sharing their turnout to support citizen science.

First, vote! Then, share your Division and Voter Number at http://bit.ly/sixtysixturnout.

Live Results

As of 08:00, 640 voters in 52 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 195,564 people have voted across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 181,773 - 210,764).

[Note: the 165,382 represents 2014 Democratic Primary votes cast for Governor. For annoying reasons, I’m using that rather than actual 2014 Dem turnout. That’s lower than the 173,229 who actually showed up at the polls. Thanks to Commissioner Schmidt for reminding me to point this out.]

Maps

I use historical correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting.

Here are the current estimates of turnout in each division.

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

Estimated Turnout by Ward
ward time_of_day turnout turnout_high turnout_low turnout_2014
01 07:59 3646 4456 3001 2056
02 07:59 5021 6108 4144 3126
03 07:59 3016 3960 2302 2616
04 07:59 2624 3496 1970 2476
05 07:59 6045 7353 4990 4049
06 07:59 2039 2683 1552 1718
07 07:59 1049 1389 794 947
08 07:59 6667 8076 5528 4577
09 07:59 4167 4960 3517 3805
10 07:59 4517 5974 3421 4768
11 07:59 1802 2408 1348 1871
12 07:59 3149 4174 2378 3131
13 07:59 2857 3816 2139 2772
14 07:59 1231 1589 957 1108
15 07:59 3859 4742 3156 2796
16 07:59 1408 1882 1054 1416
17 07:59 3582 4784 2682 3611
18 07:59 2387 2869 1996 1433
19 07:59 966 1296 721 968
20 07:59 900 1198 677 877
21 07:59 6190 7957 4834 4833
22 07:59 5811 7155 4745 5501
23 07:59 1974 2627 1485 2084
24 07:59 1722 2206 1348 1351
25 07:59 1319 1683 1038 829
26 07:59 2411 3112 1875 1314
27 07:59 1877 2383 1488 1169
28 07:59 1551 2073 1161 1571
29 07:59 1624 2075 1277 1312
30 07:59 3448 4078 2926 2595
31 07:59 2185 2740 1752 1330
32 07:59 2277 3015 1722 2110
33 07:59 1096 1467 819 1099
34 07:59 5605 7397 4253 5222
35 07:59 2625 3500 1970 2594
36 07:59 4258 5391 3379 3759
37 07:59 1431 1905 1076 1517
38 07:59 2873 3775 2192 2360
39 07:59 6451 8149 5133 3715
40 07:59 4824 6400 3639 3952
41 07:59 1784 2375 1340 1565
42 07:59 2096 2784 1579 1985
43 07:59 1623 2162 1218 1631
44 07:59 1821 2432 1364 1646
45 07:59 1641 2125 1271 1146
46 07:59 4319 5305 3535 3233
47 07:59 789 1020 612 727
48 07:59 2055 2718 1556 1679
49 07:59 3110 4153 2329 3009
50 07:59 5962 7965 4463 6013
51 07:59 2931 3857 2233 2692
52 07:59 4569 6104 3420 4256
53 07:59 1809 2387 1373 1882
54 07:59 1287 1715 967 1143
55 07:59 2404 3199 1807 2162
56 07:59 3724 4905 2832 3478
57 07:59 2711 3591 2049 2478
58 07:59 4179 5552 3149 3880
59 07:59 3364 4365 2600 3111
60 07:59 2724 3549 2097 2353
61 07:59 3166 4235 2366 3027
62 07:59 2049 2738 1533 1984
63 07:59 2766 3666 2089 2598
64 07:59 1375 1830 1033 1404
65 07:59 2561 3426 1914 2379
66 07:59 3922 5202 2960 3583

Raw Submissions

Submitted Data
row_number ward div time voter_num
1 20 01 2018-05-15 07:01:00 1
2 02 18 2018-05-15 07:05:00 4
3 02 18 2018-05-15 07:06:00 5
4 27 14 2018-05-15 07:10:00 5
5 51 06 2018-05-15 07:10:00 3
6 09 02 2018-05-15 07:17:00 14
7 02 05 2018-05-15 07:10:00 3
8 48 18 2018-05-15 07:12:00 2
9 21 35 2018-05-15 07:13:00 8
10 25 01 2018-05-15 07:07:00 2
11 01 17 2018-05-15 07:20:00 10
12 09 02 2018-05-15 07:15:00 13
13